If you crave more info about the upcoming XBox
720/Next, there is finally some concrete info. The one nice thing
about this job is that proud parents like to talk, and that is
exactly where this story begins. If you recall, when we last
mentioned the
XBox next GPU/GPU/APU chip
called Oban, it had just taped out. That was 6 weeks ago or so,
and one thing we said in the article was that the devs we queried
before that was written all said, “No clue, haven’t heard anything
from Microsoft about it yet”. Fair enough, and given the number of
them saying the same thing, we rapidly came to the conclusion that
there was no info floating. Microsoft had not done any external
briefings yet.
So the article went up, and sure enough, in the days between the
calls, emails, and door knockings, and when the article went up, MS
briefed people. Luckily, Murphy never met Darwin…. Now everyone who
should be briefed has been, but no one is talking about it. Darn.
That said, they briefed devs almost to the day that the chip taped
out, conveniently NDAing them at the same time. Coincidence?
Now for the new stuff. The XBox Next/720 Oban chip is in initial
production. Sources at a foundry with a blue logo, confirm that
Oban wafers started running in the final days of 2011. Sources on
the other side of the continent in Redmond when questioned, said,
“Who the f*&$ told you that? I am going to f#*&ing rip
someone’s head off”. We at SemiAccurate take this as confirmation
that the initial sources were in the right ballpark.
Other sources at Microsoft, conveniently out of head-ripping-off
range, said that the initial order was for around 10K wafers,
mostly at the aforementioned three letter logo’d company, but a
sizeable chunk is being run at Global Foundries too.
Again, coincidence? We doubt
it.
So, time for a little speculation. Oban is being made by IBM
primarily, so that almost definitively puts to bed the idea of an
x86 CPU that has been floating. We said we were 99+% sure that the
XBox Next/720 is a Power PC CPU plus an ATI GCN/HD7000/Southern
Islands GPU, and with this last data point, we are now confident
that it is 99.9+%. Why? Several licensing agreements that cover
what can be made where will enrich a fleet of lawyers if Oban is
x86, but do not preclude the possibility entirely, hence the last
.1%.
If you assume the chip is an SoC, and is made on 300mm 32nm SOI
wafers, you can come up with a bunch of interesting numbers. Yield
on these parts should be pretty high, it is for AMD’s Bulldozer,
and those chips run at a much higher speeds on the same process as
Oban. If the chip is huge, basically reticle sized at 550-600mm^2,
you can expect to get about 100 die candidates per wafer.
With 10K wafers, 100 candidates per, and lowballing yields at 20%,
you are looking way way more chips than initially necessary for dev
kits. Before you jump up and down about the chances of an XBox 720
under the summer “School’s Out Tree”, these chips are NOT destined
for production consoles. You will not get one unless you are in
line for a dev kit, or know someone at Microsoft with a penchant
for handing out top secret keychains.
This batch, huge though it is, will make the silicon for the
initial run of dev kits, and then some. Given the order size, MS
seems to be taking no chances on quantity, even
Nvidia level yields should
provide enough dev kits to go around, so don’t fret if you are in
line for one. There will almost assuredly be several revs of Oban
before silicon is finalized, that is just the way things are done.
The first few of these chips should be coming out of the oven in
late February barring any unforeseen problems, so dev kits with
real silicon are likely for March, earlier if you are really
important.
Sources are still saying to expect silicon production for retail
consoles to start late this year, and that guidance won’t change
until the first round of volume parts is analyzed late in the
quarter. Production for end user consoles isn’t going to start
until late 2012, so don’t expect the XBox Next/720 before spring
2013. One thing you can say for sure now is that the console is
real now, and the momentum is really picking
up.
S|A